I’m told the water levels of the Great Lakes are affected more by what we don’t see than what we do see, or what seems most apparent.  It is not rain and snowfall that determine water levels as much as what is invisible:  evaporation.  It is not wave action that erodes the shore as much as what is less obvious:  wind.

On this and many other subjects it is important that we do not jump too quickly to conclusions and seize the easy evidence without examining less obvious evidence.

And so it is with the 2008-09 high school sports participation numbers:  we must proceed with caution.

In the two years since girls basketball and volleyball seasons were switched as a result of a Federal Court Order, participation has declined in those sports 5.0 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively; and boys basketball participation has dropped 3.6 percent.

In the two years since the seasons for Lower Peninsula golf and tennis switched for girls and boys, girls golf participation is down 1.8 percent in the fall, while boys participation increased 0.2 percent in the spring; and boys tennis participation plummeted 12.8 percent since the Lower Peninsula’s change to the fall, while girls tennis participation actually increased 2.4 percent with the Lower Peninsula playing in the spring season to which so many objected so strenuously.

In the two years since the mandated change of seasons, Michigan has dropped from fifth in the country in overall participation to seventh, about what our student population would predict but far from the rank Michigan could once boast about.

In addition to the many hardships and inconveniences of the seasons changes, we cannot overlook that other factors – less obvious, perhaps – may have contributed to participation declines:

• Could it be declining enrollments?  Not likely:  enrollment of MHSAA member high schools declined 1.44 percent since 2006-07; but overall sports participation dropped 2.8 percent.
• Could it be the declining economy?  More likely:  our surveys show that participation fees – “pay-to-play” – are on the rise, and that can’t encourage participation.
• Could there be other even less obvious causes of our disappointing decline?  Also likely, and worth searching for.

To review once again Michigan sports participation surveys of 2008-09 and previous years, click here.  To review national numbers, go to the National Federation website.